Extractive Economic Dependency and Skilled Labor Migration: Implications for Population Development in West Kalimantan

Abstract

Population development is determined not only by population quality and size but also by the regional economy's capacity to provide productive avenues for utilizing human capital. This issue is particularly significant in West Kalimantan, where the employment structure remains dominated by the primary sector and informal work, while the growth of value-added sectors has not been matched by a sufficiently deep transformation of employment opportunities. This study aims to analyze the interrelationships among resource-based economic dependence, the transformation of employment structures, the utilization of skilled labor, labor mobility, and their implications for population development in West Kalimantan. The research employs a descriptive-analytical approach utilizing secondary data from BPS (Statistics Indonesia), government policy documents, and scholarly literature. The analysis integrates perspectives on structural transformation, human capital, skills mismatch, job quality, and the economics of migration, while the policy analysis applies Bardach’s Eightfold Path framework. The findings indicate that the core issue is not merely the high reliance on resource-based sectors, but rather the lack of sufficient depth in economic transformation regarding the diversity, quality, and skill requirements of available jobs. As of February 2026, the agriculture, forestry, and fisheries sectors still absorbed 45.70% of the workforce, whereas manufacturing accounted for 6.68%, and informal workers constituted 58.51%. This situation reveals a gap between human capital development and the economic structure's capacity to optimally absorb and utilize that capital. While available data do not allow for direct verification of skills mismatch, overeducation, or brain drain, the limited job diversification and disparities in regional job attractiveness provide a basis for viewing skilled labor mobility as a mechanism for human capital distribution. These findings frame population development as a matter of the economic structure's transformative capacity to convert human capital into regional productive capacity. Therefore, policies need to be directed towards strengthening the link between education and industry needs, enhancing the quality and appeal of professional jobs, and fostering technology-based downstreaming and the strengthening of local value chains.